[-empyre-] Sustainable?

[h w]

I too look forward to this discussion, as I have just sent in an
application to speak at a Sustainability conference in Grand Rapids
Michigan at the end of May.

http://sustainabilityconference.org/

The topic of my discussion is "PostCarbon ICT".

I'm still researching parts of my discussion, so I am *very* interested
in what happens here. FWIW in the "Reader's Digest" version, frankly:
in a very strict notion, there is no postCarbon ICT. However, the
benefits of light speed data transmission are so enormous, that ICT
will be maintained long after it has ceased to even be vaguely viable.

(I was going to do a talk on the relationship between watersheds and 
north american native cultural boundaries, but I discovered I wouldn't
have the materials in time to discuss it in a way I found convincing.
Some other day...)

The basic problems are thermodynamics, energy density, energy quality,
infrastructure, and cultural preferences.

In a nutshell:

thermodynamics: it is impossible to live outside the second law of
thermodynamics. Like light speed (c) you can bend the context in 
different ways (like the way they've "frozen light"), but you can't
beat it (there is no v > c, and you can't get something for nothing).
Civilisations that try to do so will fail. (Carnot, Diamond)

energy density: presently, petroleum and nuclear power have the
greatest energy densities. Petroleum is presently at or neat peak
extraction. Nuclear Power has a number of close associated "issues"
that make it less than tenable. (dangerous waste materials, limited
resource of which 1/3 was mined decades ago, decomissioning energy
costs, etc.) One gallon of gasoline is equal to a month of labour by a
human in peak physical condition. The amount of wheat/energy a horse
can cart is limited to well within 200 miles, as the rider and horse
will eat that much wheat/energy in the time it takes to move it. More
on this later.)
(Heinberg, Youngquist)

energy quality: you can't put a nuclear power plant in a laptop. You're
foolish to develop a kick start diesel powered toothbrush. Energy
quality matters.
(Odum, Heinberg)

infrastructure: peak oil == peak asphalt. No oil: no asphalt no roads
no food delivery nothing. Game over. Not instantly, of course - people
will depave suburban (soon to be slum?) boulevards to melt the macadam
to keep the highways paved. Oil is worth more as a plastic and material
than a fuel, but when not used as a fuel, alternative fuels are
basically either not available, don't have the Energy Return on Energy
Invested (EROEI) that oil does, or are based in heinously immoral
bargains (viz grain based ethanol).
(Pementhal, Campbell, Lahaerre, Heinberg, Youngquist, others)


cultural preferences: our civilisation has a great deal of sunken cost
in an unsustainable lifestyle, and is loathe to abandon the investment.
The results of the flood of energy released by the vast number of quads
of ancient sunlight energy expended since 1860 from petroleum has
resulted in massive overshoot of population over local carrying
capacities, resulting in the necessity of long distance travel and
shipping, and the sunken cost in the infrastructure that supports it.
Our civilisation has a cultural preference to support itself, and
therefore desires said infrastructure, even as it and the population it
supports is unsustainable.
(Hardin, Diamond, Heinberg, others.)

This is where ICT comes in, and technological art that deals with these
questions is directly on the very cutting edge of these deeply critical
questions.

As mentioned by one of our guests, "guilt" is of little value: we're
all utterly guilty, so throwing blame around or going on about how
horrible the world is is of absolutely no consequence. Example: an
ambulance screams by. It's running on a mix of gasoline and alcohol
made of corn. Over the past week, thousands of people have been engaged
in food riots around the world due to high food prices that are , in
part, due to the cost caused by biofuels. So: people riot for foot,
while others are rushed to hospital. Guilt and blame have no place in
that particular equation - it's all of a part.

That said, some technologies are decidedly more "sustainable" than
others, and some, like ICT, may very well be deeply unsustainable, but
will be supported and demanded long after they are even vaguely viable.
More on that later, I hope.

It's late. Best regards to all, and a hearty welcome to this month's
guests. 

Henry Warwick


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